Calibre Private Wealth

Proposed Super Tax Changes

Calibre Private Wealth · Nov 17, 2023 ·

Proposed Super Tax Changes

The Government has now released draft legislation for public consultation in relation to the announced proposal to cap tax concessions on certain high balance super accounts from 1^st July 2025.

The draft legislation (referred to as Division 296 tax) largely reflects what was proposed by the Government in the initial announcement and subsequent materials released. Key takeouts from the draft legislation include:

Division 296 tax will not limit the total amount that a person can hold in total super interests, but rather it limits the tax concessions available on calculated earnings for high balance individuals.
There will not be legislative provision for indexation of the ‘large superannuation balance threshold’ which will be $3 million.
Division 296 tax will be levied at the individual. The tax can be paid personally, or an election made to have this amount released from super.
Division 296 tax associated with a defined benefit interest may be deferred.
Total super balance (TSB) will form the basis of the calculation of fund earnings for the new tax, and actual fund earnings will be disregarded for this purpose. In effect this means that unrealised capital gains will be treated as earnings and will impact the calculation of tax payable.
There will be some modifications to the definition of TSB, some of which will apply for all super purposes from 1 July 2025.

Current vs proposed taxation of accumulation phase.

Tax on earnings within accumulation phase is currently capped at 15% and there is no limit on the total amount that an individual can hold in accumulation phase.

Under the proposed changes:

Individuals with a TSB greater than the large superannuation threshold of $3 million at the end of a financial year (first tested on 30 June 2026), with calculated earnings for the year greater than nil, will be subject to Division 296 tax.
Division 296 tax will be levied at a rate of 15%.
additional tax will only be payable on the calculated earnings attributable to the portion of the balance that exceeds $3 million.
the $3 million threshold will not be automatically indexed based on legislative provision.
calculated earnings for this purpose will not reflect actual fund earnings but will instead be based on the individual’s TSB for this purpose, at the start and end of the year, after adjusting for certain contributions and withdrawals made.
if the individual has negative calculated earnings for a year, they may carry this forward to offset any additional tax which they become liable for in a future year.
existing capital gains tax concessions available to the super fund will not be impacted.
the additional tax will only apply to calculated earnings from the commencement date and not be applied retrospectively.
the additional tax will be able to be paid by the individual, or released from superannuation, and
Division 296 tax will be imposed separately to personal income tax, and cannot be reduced by personal deductions, offsets or losses.

Impact on advice strategies if legislated

From a tax perspective, the proposed additional 15% tax on calculated earnings may still make super an attractive investment option for high income earners who are currently paying tax at the top marginal rate of 47% (including Medicare levy). However, the relative longer-term tax effectiveness and appropriateness of superannuation strategies will need to be considered on a case-by-case basis. This may include high income individuals who may be impacted when the legislated stage three tax cuts take effect on 1 July 2024.

Other considerations may include:

maximising total super tax concessions available between members of a couple by considering the appropriateness of spouse contributions and/or spouse contribution splitting strategies.
the timing of withdrawals and contributions to super, given the way in which the calculated earnings formula will work (i.e., no accounting for the period of time amounts were in the fund).
cashflow considerations for impacted SMSFs, where both the fund and members personally may have restricted cashflow to pay additional tax (which may be due to the nature of the investments within the fund, and personal circumstances where for example these individuals are self-employed, own their business property within their fund and are asset rich but cash poor), and
consideration given to alternative tax and investment options, e.g.

family trusts
investment companies
investment bonds
other personally owned investments

Final Calibre comments

The proposed super tax changes have been widely criticised. Not because they will make people who are comfortably off pay more tax, but because of the way they have been worked out. There is still plenty of lobbying going on to revise some unpopular aspects of the draft legislation (e.g., the calculation of tax on unrealised capital gains).

Some people have asked whether they should consider taking large amounts out of super to ensure they get back down to the magic $3 million threshold. But the new tax isn’t due to start until 2025-26. It’s not law yet and there’s an election in the meantime. So, there’s no rush and plenty of time to wait and see for now.

Remember also that taking money out of an SMSF usually means selling assets the fund already owns. For people whose SMSF investments have already grown, that means paying capital gains tax “now” rather than some time in the future. The new tax applies only to growth in a member’s super account after July 1, 2025. So, selling assets that have already grown a lot now might be worse than just putting up with the new tax.

It’s also important to remember that whilst this new tax makes super less attractive than it is at the moment, it’s not necessarily going to be so unattractive that it’s worse than the alternatives. Super can still be a highly tax-effective place for retirement savings.

A range of advice opportunities may arise for higher super balance clients if the Bill becomes law. It will be important to review superannuation, other tax structures, investment and estate planning strategies to ensure they are appropriate for each client’s individual circumstances, objectives and needs.

We are here to help.

Calibre Private Wealth Advisers provides financial leadership and peace of mind for successful professionals, business owners and their families.

We engage our clients in real conversations around their life and then help them use the money they have to get the best Return on Life

If you have any questions/thoughts in relation to this article or have a need for some advice and would like to discuss your particular situation, please contact Gordon Thoms or David Conte at Calibre Private Wealth Advisers on ph. (03) 9824 2777 or email us here.

The information contained in this article is of a general nature only and may not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, the information should not be used, relied upon or treated as a substitute for personal financial advice. While all care has been taken in the preparation of this article, no warranty is given in respect of the information provided and accordingly, neither Calibre Private Wealth Advisers, its employees or agents shall be liable for any loss (howsoever arising) with respect to decisions or actions taken as a result of you acting upon such information.

Taking Charge

Calibre Private Wealth · Nov 17, 2023 ·

Taking Charge

Article by Jonathan Clements (HumbelDollar)

There are so many things we can’t control: what our employers decide, what acquaintances say behind our back, how shares, property and interest rates perform. This lack of control can be a source of endless anxiety, while the opposite feeling—autonomy, financially and otherwise—can give a big boost to our happiness.

Many folks have told me that the world feels especially chaotic right now, given the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, U.S. political polarization, stubbornly elevated inflation, rising interest rates and a lacklustre share market. I understand such handwringing, but I’m not inclined to join in. I’ve spent my entire life hearing that things have never been worse—and yet somehow, they keep getting better.

Want to sleep at night and avoid panicky financial decisions? We need to make our peace with the world’s uncertainty. A lack of control is one of life’s constants and, indeed, it can get worse as we age. As the years sap our physical and mental capabilities, we may increasingly feel like we’re losing control, and any further threat to our independence—such as our family insisting that we stop driving or that we move into an assisted living facility—can trigger fierce resistance.

What to do? Here are five thoughts.

Control what we can

Faced with an uncertain world, this is the standard suggestion, and it has the added virtue of being good advice. If we want to be prudent managers of our own money, we should save diligently during our working years, spend judiciously once retired, limit our fixed living costs to perhaps 50% of our income, insure against major financial risks, plan our estate, hold down investment costs, manage our annual tax bill and diversify our portfolio broadly.

All of these steps are largely or entirely within our control. All of this can be achieved by engaging a professional adviser to help prepare and implement a well-documented and detailed financial plan.

To help prove this, Vanguard’s inaugural How Australia Retires study released in 2023 has found a strong correlation between the use of a professional financial adviser and financial confidence.

But when it comes to investing, perhaps the most important step is controlling our reaction to the financial markets’ ups and downs. A measured optimism about the world and the broad financial markets can be an investor’s best friend, allowing us to take the daily turmoil and the scary headlines in stride.

But even if we control what we can, there’s no guarantee of financial success, especially over the short term. Still, the steps mentioned above should stack the odds in our favour, making it likely we’ll grow wealthy over time, while easing much of our financial stress along the way.

Anticipate future needs

There’s the stuff we can control today—and then there’s the stuff we’ll want to control tomorrow. We should give serious thought to what those things might be. Should we buy or rent a larger place in a good school district because we anticipate having kids? Should we hold down our living costs now and start building up our wealth, so we have the financial flexibility to change careers in our 50s?

Perhaps the most crucial example: Are we prepared for our later retirement years? Among other steps, that might mean clearing out the basement now, getting financial and health-care powers of attorney, buying a single-story home and getting on the list for a continuing care retirement community.

Avoid the illusion of control

Even as we tackle aspects of our financial life that we truly can control, we should be leery of actions that give us a feeling of control but will, if anything, likely end up hurting us. I’m talking about things like trading excessively, following the markets closely, and investing with active investment managers because we imagine they’ll save us from losses during plunging markets. Such steps can make us feel like we have more control over our destiny—but, like shaking the dice vigorously before we throw them, that sense of control is an illusion, and sometimes an expensive one.

Accept that we can’t control everything

There are many aspects of our life that are simply beyond our control, and we should try not to let them upset us. I realize this is good advice—that’s extraordinarily difficult to follow. It’s hard not to be bothered by aggressive drivers, plunging markets, unco-operative colleagues and gossipy neighbours, even if we can’t prevent such things. But as I see it, when we allow such things to bother us—or, to use a phrase I’m fond of, “rent space in our head”—all we do is compound our own misery.

Take solace in acting wisely

How can we limit the distress caused by both financial misfortune and the misbehaviour of others? Even as we try mightily not to be bothered by things we can’t control, we should strive to always do the right thing, whether we’re dealing with our finances, our social circle, our colleagues or some other dimension of our life.

To be sure, just because we behave well doesn’t mean that things will always work out well. But the knowledge that we’re endeavouring to do our best should bring us comfort, and most of the time it’ll work to our benefit.

JONATHAN CLEMENTS is the founder and editor of HumbleDollar. He’s also the author of a fistful of personal finance books, including My Money Journey and How to Think About Money. Jonathan spent almost 20 years at The Wall Street Journal, where he was the newspaper’s personal finance columnist. Between October 1994 and April 2008, he wrote 1,009 columns for the Journal and for The Wall Street Journal Sunday. He then worked for six years at Citigroup, where he was Director of Financial Education for Citi Personal Wealth Management, before returning to the Journal for an additional 15-month stint as a columnist.

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Calibre Private Wealth Advisers provides financial leadership and peace of mind for successful professionals, business owners and their families.

We engage our clients in real conversations around their life and then help them use the money they have to get the best Return on Life

long-term-investors-dont-let-a-recession-faze-you

Calibre Private Wealth · Nov 17, 2023 ·

Long-Term Investors, Don’t Let a Recession Faze You

You don’t have to look far to see talk of a looming recession. But while economic downturns can be worrying, research shows share prices generally fall well before a recession begins and recover well before it ends. And average returns have been positive two years after a recession’s onset.

Investors may be tempted to abandon equities and go to cash when there is a heightened risk of recession. However research has shown that share prices incorporate these expectations and generally fall in value well before a recession even begins.

Across the two years that follow a recession’s onset, equities have a history of positive performance. Data covering the past century’s 16 US recessions show that investors tended to be rewarded for sticking with stocks. In 12 of the 16 instances, or 75% of the time, returns on shares were positive two years after a recession began (see Exhibit 1). The average annualized market return for the two years following a recession’s start was 8.8%. Looked at another way, a $10,000 investment at the peak of the business cycle would have grown to $12,145 after two years on average.

Recessions understandably trigger worries over how markets might perform. But a history of positive average performance following a recession can be a comfort for investors wondering whether or not they should move out of stocks.

Markets Don’t Wait for Official Announcements

Some investors may worry about the stock market sinking after a recession is officially announced. But history shows that markets incorporate expectations ahead of the news.

Exhibit 2

The global financial crisis offers a lesson in the forward-looking nature of the stock market. The US recession spanned from December 2007 to May 2009 (shaded area).

But the official “in recession” announcement came in December 2008—a year after the recession had started. By then, stock prices had already dropped more than 40%.

Although the recession ended in May 2009, the announcement came 16 months later, by which time US stocks had rebounded.

Investors who look beyond after-the-fact headlines about markets and the economy and stick to a plan may be better positioned for long-term success.

Exhibit 1 Notes

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Data presented in the growth of $10,000 chart is hypothetical and assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. The chart is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment.

In USD. Performance includes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. The Fama/French indices represent academic concepts that may be used in portfolio construction and are not available for direct investment or for use as a benchmark. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment.

Growth of wealth shows the growth of a hypothetical investment of $10,000 in the securities in the Fama/French US Total Market Research Index over the 24 months starting the month after the relevant recession start date. Sample includes 16 recessions as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) from October 1926 to February 2020.

NBER defines recessions as starting at the peak of a business cycle.

GLOSSARY

Fama/French Total US Market Research Index: July 1926–present: Fama/French Total US Market Research Factor + One-Month US Treasury Bills. Source: Ken French website

Exhibit 2 Notes

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing risks include loss of principal and fluctuating value. There is no guarantee an investment strategy will be successful. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment.

Start and end dates of US recessions, along with announcement dates, are from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions and nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements

Stock price decline of more than 40% from December 2007–December 2008 is based on the S&P 500 Index’s price difference between the actual start of the recession in December 2007 and the official “in recession” announcement 12 months later.

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Calibre Private Wealth Advisers provides financial leadership and peace of mind for successful professionals, business owners and their families.

We engage our clients in real conversations around their life and then help them use the money they have to get the best Return on Life

Sick of all the personal finance noise

Calibre Private Wealth · Aug 28, 2023 ·

Sick of all the personal finance noise? Tune it out

Are you tired of all the relentless financial noise in the news? Most of it is useless and irrelevant to your life. Instead, focus on what’s really important in your life and use your spare time to develop a plan to achieve it.

This concept is simply communicated in this illustration below from author and New York Times columnist Carl Richards.

The following is an excerpt from an article Carl Richards recently penned:

Let’s try a little thought experiment.

Think back over the last couple of years to a time when you read something about money in the news, you acted on it, and then, with the benefit of hindsight, you were glad you did.

This could include any number of things: the direction of interest rates or currencies, the latest hot investment trends, bear or bull market predictions, company mergers, or market collapses.

Whatever.

Go ahead, I’ll wait. Close your eyes and think about it.

I’ve done this experiment hundreds of times around the world, and I’ve only had one person come up with a valid example. It was news about a change in the tax law.

That’s it.

Isn’t that interesting?

Think of all the financial pornography out there, think of the number of anxiety inducing headlines in our newspapers every week, think of the Money sections on the nightly news or in our weekend newspapers. And almost all of it is noise. Almost none of it is actionable.

Occasionally, we get information—you know, facts and figures. But most of that is useless because it doesn’t matter to you, or it is beyond your control anyway.

The noise is worthless, the information is useless, and then, every once in a while, there is a little teeny tiny speck that might be useful. In fact, the one piece of feedback I get about this sketch is that the little tiny dot that’s labelled “Stuff That Might Actually Be Useful” is way too big!

This leads to one obvious question: Why are we paying attention in the first place?

It might be fun—if you’re into that kind of fun. You know, like going to the circus. You might consider it part of your job to be up on the latest market news.

But most likely, it’s just a waste of time.

So now I’ll get out my little permission-granting wand and grant you permission to stop paying attention to all the noise.

Instead, use that time to work focus on what’s really important in your life and develop a plan to give you the highest chance of achieving it.

We are here to help

Calibre Private Wealth Advisers provides financial leadership and peace of mind for successful professionals, business owners and their families.

We engage our clients in real conversations around their life and then help them use the money they have to get the best Return on Life

Selling is the easy part but what about reinvesting

Calibre Private Wealth · Aug 28, 2023 ·

Selling is the easy part but what about reinvesting?

One of the bigger challenges facing investors is to hang on to their shares during a market selloff, or when the perception that the future for equities is bleak. Investors often justify the sale by telling themselves they will ‘buy back at a lower price’, but that will probably become a doomed attempt to make two correct timing decisions. It may mean the investor is out of the market and misses long-term gains.

The share market falls by 10% or more at some stage in most years and suffers negative returns in about three out of every 10 years. Substantial falls of over 30% occur every 20 years or so. There is never a shortage of reasons to sell, as shown below, and always an expert fund manager warning of doom. For retirees in particular, the threat of a significant loss of capital can be too much to bear, leading to selling even when shares are supposed to be part of a long-term portfolio holding.

Double trouble, both the sale and the repurchase decision

The right time to sell is difficult enough to time, and generally done at the wrong moment. Deciding to sell and then buy when the market might be somehow lower is even tougher, doubling the required timing luck. As Howard Marks said:

“In both economic forecasting and investment management, it’s worth noting that there’s usually someone who gets it exactly right … but it’s rarely the same person twice.”

Those who are reassured by the intention to buy back in as soon as things have ‘settled down’ face two major hurdles:

If the market falls, the temptation is to wait longer for the bottom, as if someone rings a bell on the critical day. OR

If the market rises, there is a psychological hurdle of paying more for the same shares that were recently sold at a lower price.

At least the decision to sell may be justified and driven supposedly by short-term risk mitigation, or a market event or changed outlook which justified caution. But what trigger does the investor look for to buy back in?

The impact of major falls such as in the GFC

The GFC was about 15 years ago but its impact has remained profound for many investors. Between November 2007 and March 2009, the S&P/ASX200 Accumulation Index fell 51%, and it was a shock for many.

The most unfortunate impact was that retirees experienced such a rapid loss in the value of their retirement savings that it turned them against equity investing. They not only missed the subsequent recovery, but the large fall drove a conservatism that misses the long-term benefits of equity market growth.

The most comprehensive survey of the reactions of older Australians to the GFC was conducted by National Seniors. Although Once Bitten Twice Shy was published five years ago in 2018, it shows the ongoing impact of a significant market fall. The survey concluded:

“Ten years on from the GFC, its impact lingers for most older Australians, who express a ‘once bitten twice shy’ sentiment as a result of their experiences. Seven out of 10 are still concerned about another potential market collapse. Older Australians are still wary of market turmoil, with only one in fourteen thought they would be able to tolerate a loss of 20% or higher – about the same as the fall in superannuation returns during the GFC a decade ago. One in four said they could tolerate losses greater than 10%, though the same proportion said they could not tolerate any annual loss on their portfolio.”

Relationship between having no tolerance for loss and GFC concerns (%)

Long-term consequences for investment returns

There are many studies which show that investors earn less than the funds they invest in. For example, Morningstar produces an annual Mind the Gap report, which concluded in 2023:

“Our annual study of dollar-weighted returns (also known as investor returns) finds investors earned about 6% per year on the average dollar they invested in managedl funds and exchange-traded funds over the trailing 10 years ended 31 December 2022. This is about 1.7% less than the total returns their fund investments generated over the same period. This shortfall, or gap, stems from poorly timed purchases and sales of fund shares, which cost investors roughly one fifth the return they would have earned if they had simply bought and held.”

Morningstar Australia’s Mark LaMonica examined the history of the report and the numbers have been similar for many years. He says:

“The larger point is that timing the market is hard. Expectations are baked into prices which means that once there is more clarity on the certainty of an outcome it is often too late. Timing the market means anticipating future events before other investors. It also means getting the call right. That can be a lonely and intellectually challenging exercise. Because everyone else is doing and saying the opposite. It is hard to go against the crowd.”

What’s the main lesson?

Many investors sell because they think the stockmarket will fall, with the intention of reinvesting. It requires two correct timing decisions but what signals will prompt a reinvestment? Decades of evidence shows it’s harder than it looks. Correct execution of two-timing decisions will be more a matter of luck than profound foresight.

The lesson we can derive from this is that when you take panic selling or emotional decisions out of the equation, investors tend to fair better.

Staying the course is not an easy feat. You are battling against primal emotions, and you are forcing yourself to make unnatural decisions.

As an investor, your most reliable tools are diversification, discipline and a financial adviser who knows you, your family and your aspirations, understands what you can live with and builds you a portfolio that is designed to cope with market volatility and maximise the chances of you reaching your goals.

We are here to help

Calibre Private Wealth Advisers provides financial leadership and peace of mind for successful professionals, business owners and their families.

We engage our clients in real conversations around their life and then help them use the money they have to get the best Return on Life